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This resilience is partly driven by a shift in the composition of exports away from the US and towards destinations like ASEAN and the Euro zone.
Despite all this, China’s current account and trade surplus look robust.
We see this as a good template for possible contagion effects now.
The US and EU have introduced numerous financial sanctions on Russia.
China’s external debt overhang should be a minor concern for Bo P and RMB depreciation. Despite the recent downgrades we still believe that Lebanon will not default given its sizable international reserves, robust banking system, and a track record of having never defaulted on foreign-currency debt.
During August, EM stocks and bonds suffered the worst outflows since November-2016.
Existing sanctions will weigh on investment, productivity, and growth.
Portfolio investments will be the main driver of foreign capital inflows increase to Saudi Arabia in 2019.