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What has pleasantly surprised me is that because of the Obama political sweep we've got some very rapid interventions beyond anything that the Eccles Federal Reserve even dreamed of in Franklin Roosevelt times, and that's why I think we're a little bit ahead o the European Union in the state of our recovery.On the other hand, I think the popular view -- if I count noses -- is that by the end of this year even, or by 2010, recovery will have set in. Things could get better -- things could even get better such that the National Bureau committee that officially dates these recessions will say that the recession officially ended in something like December 2010.
And his numerical findings were that there were no miracles -- it was about what you'd expect -- but it worked.
And so I developed I guarded admiration for Keynes. Friedman had a solid MV = PQ doctrine from which he deviated very little all his life. He wanted a machine that spit out M0 basic currency at a rate exactly equal to the real rate of growth of the system. Well, it was about the worst form of prediction that various people who ran scores on this -- and I remember a very lengthy Boston Federal Reserve study -- thought possible.
A few months ago, Atlantic Business writer Conor Clarke interviewed Samuelson about how the economics field failed to prepare us for the financial crisis and the Great Recession. Samuelson has a long list of accomplishments -- A John Bates Clark Medal, a Nobel Prize -- that I won't try to recap here.
Samuelson is one of the most influential economists of the Post-WWII era, and this is a brilliant, informative and entertaining interview.
And I say guarded because I don't think he understood his system as well as some of the people around him did. By the way, he's about as smart a guy as you'll meet. And to be candid, I should tell you that I stayed on good terms with Milton for more than 60 years. When the economy was going up, we both gave the same advice, and when the economy was going down, we gave the same advice. Walter Wriston, at that time one of the most respected bankers in the country and in the world fired his whole monetarist, Friedmaniac staff overnight, because they were so off the target.
Anyway, this swept the field for a number of decades. But I didn't do it by telling him exactly everything I thought about him. People thought he was joking, but he was against licensing surgeons and so forth. But Milton Friedman had a big influence on the profession -- much greater than, say, the influence of Friedrich Hayek or Von Mises. I don't know whether you read the newspapers, but there's almost an apology from Ben Bernanke that we didn't listen more to Milton Friedman. The craze that really succeeded the Keynesian policy craze was not the monetarist, Friedman view, but the [Robert] Lucas and [Thomas] Sargent new-classical view.
She has published several papers on the topic of numerical holography.
Her current professional interests include the communication of science and math for a popular audience and the role of dualities in physics.
At the University of Maine’s program in Ecology and Environmental Sciences she was co-advised by Joyce Longcore (School of Biology & Ecology) and Aram Calhoun (Department of Wildlife Ecology).
Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize-winning giant of modern Keynesian economics, died today at the age of 94. I've spent the last six months, off and on, trying to interview Paul Samuelson.